Just five days ago I postulated that the U.S. Has Stopped Ukrainian ATACMS Strikes On Russia.
Today that claim turned out to have been premature:
Status-6 @Archer83Able – 13:24 UTC · Dec 11, 2024
The remains of a US-made MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missile lying on the street in the Russian city of Taganrog following Ukrainian strikes last night.
AFAIK the target was the 325th Aviation Repair Plant located in the vicinity of the Taganrog-Tsentralny Air Base.
Taganrog, on the norther coast of the Azov Sea in the Rostov oblast of Russia, is where the Beriev Aircraft Company is housed. The company is well known for building amphibious flying boat utility planes.
But it is also producing the Beriev 100 airplane which is the Russian version of an airborne early warning and control aircraft system (AWACS). The plant thus has strategic importance.
The Russian Ministry of Defense acknowledged the attack but claimed that it failed (machine translation):
During the investigation, it was reliably established that six American-made ATACMS ballistic missiles were used.
Two missiles were shot down by the Pantsir missile defense system, while the rest were rejected by electronic warfare.
As a result of falling fragments of missiles, there are casualties among the personnel. There was no damage, two buildings on the technical territory of the airfield and three units of military vehicles, as well as civilian vehicles in the parking lot adjacent to the airfield were slightly damaged (split by shrapnel).
This attack by Western long-range weapons will not remain unanswered, and appropriate measures will be taken.
Ukraine is unable to use long range ATACMS missiles without the intelligence and targeting information provided by U.S. systems and specialists.
Related to this escalation may be today’s warning to Russian citizens to avoid travel to the U.S. and Europe:
Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian foreign ministry, urged citizens on Wednesday to “refrain from trips to the US, Canada and with a few exceptions EU countries” over the Christmas period.
She said those that travel were at risk of being “hunted” down by US authorities.
“In the context of the increasing confrontation in Russian-American relations, which are teetering on the verge of rupture due to the fault of Washington, trips to the United States of America privately or out of official necessity are fraught with serious risks,” Ms Zakharova said.
The new ATACMS strike comes a day after the Russian president Vladimir Putin again asserted the strategic value of the hypersonic Oreshnik missile:
Once there is a sufficient amount of Oreshnik missiles, Russia will no longer consider the use of nuclear weapons, President Vladimir Putin said, addressing a meeting of the Council on Civil Society and Human Rights.
“We are improving our nuclear doctrine, not tightening it. Basically, now, we need to improve the Oreshnik missile, not the nuclear doctrine,” Putin noted.
“If we take a closer look, a sufficient amount of these cutting-edge weapon systems will actually eliminate the need for the use of nuclear weapons,” he explained.
The U.S. at first had hoped that Russia has no other Oreshnik missile than the one which was tested in a strike on the Ukrainian Yushmash missile plant three weeks ago.
That however has since been contradicted:
Following Russia’s first combat use of the Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missile on November 21, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry publicised an intelligence assessment on Russian industry’s production capacity for the new weapons system. Russia is estimated to be able to produce up to 25 Oreshnik missiles monthly, which equates to production of 300 missiles per year.
After today’s (failed) ATACMS attack the U.S. does know what is coming:
Russia may soon target Ukraine with another of its new hypersonic Oreshnik missiles, two US officials said on Wednesday, after Moscow first used one of the weapons in a strike last month.
“Russia has signaled its intent to launch another experimental Oreshnik missile at Ukraine, potentially in the coming days,” one official said on condition of anonymity.
The targets of a Russian retaliatory strike will -for now- likely be in Ukraine.
That is why the U.S. officials seem not to be bothered or only a little:
‘However, this missile is not a battlefield game-changer but an effort to intimidate Ukraine and its allies. The Oreshnik, with its smaller warhead and limited availability, is unlikely to alter the course of the conflict,’ the official said.
A second US official likewise downplayed the missile’s potential impact, saying Moscow only has a limited supply.
So Russia is running out of missiles? Since March 2022? When will these idiots ever learn?
The longer the U.S. is doubting the effects of hardened metal darts hitting at MACH 10 and the Oreshnik missile’s availability the greater the need for Russia to hit a real U.S. target.
The U.S. controlled intermediate range cruise missile installation in Poland might well be a good one but others may equally qualify.
Reprinted with permission from Moon of Alabama.
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