Russian war correspondent, Marat Khairullin, has posted a terrific summary about the current status of Russian and Ukrainian forces on the battlefield. He writes:
Victory is already in sight. Ukraine has lost the war. This is not even an axiom, but a ready, settled foundation on which the walls of the future building are being poured right now. What is happening on the ground is nothing more than the convulsions of the regime. No one is interested in Ukropia and the Ukies as such – Trump is now openly flirting and offering Putin negotiations without any “Zelenskys.”
Marat is not a blind cheerleader. He is a hard-nosed reporter and sticks to the facts. This post marks a decided shift in his tone. He identifies two key trends to the current campaign:
The Ukrainian Armed Forces on the ground can no longer offer serious resistance.
The dynamics of the process – we are accelerating, and the Ukrainians are getting more and more exhausted.
The first trend is direct consequence of Ukraine failing to recruit and fully train reserve forces — i.e., replacements — that could be plugged into holes in Ukrainian defenses. According to Khairullin:
The Ukrainian Armed Forces on the ground can no longer offer serious resistance. In the main directions (primarily Pokrovsk), the Russian army is conducting a total cleansing. Our troops are deployed in convenient positions around populated areas that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have turned into fortifications, and gradually, using remote methods, they destroy any enemy presence. Then, the infantry enters the empty enemy positions, and the Ukrainians can do nothing about this tactic.
Previously, the Ukrainian Armed Forces responded to this with counterattacks, quickly transferring reserves from one area to another. Now we are pressing along the entire front. The renainder of the Ukrainian reserves are dying near Kursk.
Unlike World War I or World War II, where attacking troops had to storm fortifications with men and tanks, the Special Military Operation (SMO) has witnessed the emergence of drone and bot forces on the battlefield, which represent a genuine game changer. Drone / Bot operators are fully integrated into Russia’s attacking forces. The remote methods means that drones and bots and glide bombs, along with conventional artillery and missiles, hit hardened points until they are shattered. This tactic inflicts devastating casualties on the Ukrainians while minimizing Russian losses.
The second trend Marat identifies is all about age and experience:
The dynamics of the process – we are accelerating, and the Ukrainians are getting more and more exhausted. And finally, a moment that few people see – our army is not just modernizing, it is starting to rejuvenate. In each unit at the company level, separate UAV platoons are being created, and recruits no older than 30 are being recruited there. We are actively attracting twenty-year-old guys.
In general, the army has also begun a process of renewal of the middle officer ranks – everyone over 45 years old is being put into the reserve. This primarily concerns the rear, support, and staff services. At the same time, if we take the main combat unit, then in battalions, the overwhelming majority of the command staff is no older than 35. Company commanders are very rarely older than 30 years old. Even the composition of the assault units (those that carry out cleanup operations on the ground) has changed – assault troops over forty are becoming increasingly rare.
Russian troops are young compared to those filling Ukrainian ranks. The following picture (taken from a video on X) shows the horrific state of Ukraine’s military. Here is an entertainer singing to a room full of Ukrainian recruits. Most appear to be at least 40 years old. There is a lot of grey hair in that auditorium. But despite their age, these troops are not experienced.
Russia’s situation is the polar opposite. Its ranks are filled with guys under 30 who arrive at the front with months of training under their belts and are mentored by combat veterans. According to Khairullin, the 45-year-old guys are being taken off the front and put into reserve units. No amount of training, no matter how superb, can match what a soldier learns in combat. Unlike Ukraine, who is unable to properly train reserves before tossing them into the meat grinder, Russia is training soldiers properly before sending them into battle. Once in the fight, graduate school is called to order and the green soldiers are transformed into combat veterans.
At present, there is not a single unit in the US Army, the British Army, the French Army or the German Army with this kind of experience. Boasting about numbers on paper — as NATO leaders often do — does not translate into combat-effective units capable of fighting a peer war . . . especially against a force like Russia’s, which has two years of sustained heavy combat under its belt.
The foundations of NATO are crumbling, brought about in large measure by the West’s foolish investment in the Ukrainian war. Hungary, Austria, Croatia, Slovakia and Romania are openly voicing opposition to continuing support for Ukraine. They can read the results on the battlefield and realize that Russia is defeating Ukraine despite unfettered, massive support from NATO. The big players in NATO — i.e., the UK, France and Germany — are facing economic and political chaos at home. None are in a position to shift to a war footing and risk challenging Russia.
Then there is Turkiye. Turkiye is embroiled in a new war in Syria and is focused on defeating the Kurds. It is not willing to provide troops or equipment should NATO take the suicidal step of confronting Russia.
I do not know if Donald Trump and his team grasp the dire nature of the situation, but if their negotiating strategy is built on the assumption that Russia is weak and that the SMO is stalemated, they are going to discover that what they thought was a trump card is a Two of Spades . . . not a strong hand.
Reprinted with permission from Sonar21.
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